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TMV for April 11, 2008
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June Dow- Pattern-wise, another bull flag is forming and a break above 12735 should generate additional buyers. Our upside target is pegged at 12980.
June Bonds- There are signs we’re nearing the end of this latest interest rate cutting cycle. The next FOMC meeting is set for May 29 th and 30 th, and most expect another quarter point cut, but that may be the end of it. I’ve been expecting the bonds to slide back toward their 2 X 1 Gann (buy) line at 114-20, but the market has held steady. Still, if I’m right about the interest rates, the bonds will correct. A break below 117-14 would help start things off.
May Silver- A market that consolidates just below the 20-day average is getting ready to rally. That’s what is happening in silver. A steady to lower trade into Monday would set up a buying opportunity.
June Gold- Gazing at the chart, it’s hard to miss the bullish peg-leg formation, which has formed. A steady to lower trade into Monday would likely set up a buy.
June British Pound- Our downside target is pegged at 193.50.
June Australian Dollar- I thought this market would retreat. I was wrong. The stop was elected above Tuesday’s high.
June Yen- A bear flag is forming. A break below 97.50 should kick in the sell programs. If so, our downside target will be 94.90.
June Swiss franc- The franc appears to be at a precipice, and a break below 98.30 would push it over. If so, our downside target will be 93.25.
May Coffee -I’ve been writing, “The market is too close to its November lows of 125.00 not to take them out now.” The market fell 475 points today, closing at 131.20. Those lows of 125.00 look closer than ever!
May Sugar- Okay, I concede the point, sugar looks ready to rally again. Still, I wouldn’t buy on a Friday! Instead, I’ll look for a steady to lower trade into Tuesday before making a recommendation.
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REVERSAL DATES FOR THE WEEK of April 7th, 2008
MONDAY – Corn, Silver, Coffee
TUESDAY –
WEDNESDAY – Crude, RBOB gas, Dow, S&P
THURSDAY –
FRIDAY –
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MARKETS TO WATCH:
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1-JUNE DOW JONES – The bullish TC (Trend Continuation) pattern is still valid and projects the upward trend to continue higher into the April 11 th reversal date. The target remains 13,050.
2-JUNE EURO CURRENCY –The Eurocurrency traded to a new contract high in the evening session, but failed to find any new buying interest. The market reversed and closed below the previous pivot high and on the low of the day. The market is also showing bearish divergence, suggesting a possible top. One more price bar is needed to give a clear picture. A trade above 1.5867 will trigger new buying. On the other hand, a trade below 1.5610 should confirm the reversal.
3-JUNE JAPANESE YEN – Monday’s outside day has set up a bearish TC pattern that, when confirmed, will set up a drop to the reaction line target of .9200. The next reversal date is due on April 15.
4-JUNE SWISS FRANC – The Swiss traded higher overnight, but fell under pressure during the day session. The overnight trade pushed the market high enough to trigger a buy signal, but it appears like it could be in trouble at this point. The market needs to stay above .9835 to maintain the long position.
5-MAY SILVER – The Silver is experiencing some resistance at the 20-day SMA, but I expect to see the Silver continue higher over the next few days.
6-JUNE CATTLE – The Cattle gapped higher at today’s open and traded sharply higher throughout the remainder of the session, where it finally closed above the previous pivot high. That is very good for the long position and should mark the beginning of a strong upward price swing. – Hold the long position with the stop under the recent low.
8-AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - The Aussie has begun a new bullish cycle, triggered by the TR pattern. The market had formed a long-term A-B-C continuation pattern between February 28 and March 20. This should be the center of the long-term cycle and suggest a move towards .9300.
9-MAY SOYBEANS –The bullish cycle remains intact, as the Soybeans gained another .43 cents today. The market has rallied over $1.00 in the last two sessions and could run into some resistance at the center line ($14.00).
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Due to the volatility of the markets all trade suggestions are subject to change, at anytime during market hours, without notice. *
(TERMS YOU NEED TO KNOW) (RD = Reversal date) -- (RL= Reaction line) -- (L = long) -- (S = Short) -- (TC = Today’s closing price) -- (RLT = Reaction line target) – (TR = Trend Reversal) –(TR = Trend Reversal) – (TC = Trend Continuation)
For daily updates on current Reversal date recommended trades, go to www.tradersnetwork.com
How to use the Reversal Dates
Every good trading signal needs three key elements to be considered a successful signal. Time, Price and Pattern. When these three come together, great things can happen. If you can improve your timing or price entry, it can enhance any trading method. That is what the Reversal Dates can do for you. They will identify when the market should react, and at what price level the market needs to be for this to happen. They will even tell you what the market has to do to confirm the trade. The first thing I do is, identify Time. TIME The Reversal Date Indicator consists of three parts. The first is Time. This is identified by the projected Reversal date and will indicate which markets are ready to react and when the reaction should occur. The most common misconception about the Reversal dates is the idea that the market must reverse on every signal date, which is not true. Instead, The Reversal Date itself helps to identify the market’s reaction. A high percentage of the time, the market will reverse the current trend, but not always. A smaller percentage of the time, the market will form a “continuation pattern,” indicating the market will likely continue in the same direction as the prevailing trend. Often this will occur during a consolidation or after a very small correction.
PRICE
Once the Reversal date has been identified, the next thing to do is monitor the price. If the market is making a new high/low, or if it is trading inside a buy/sell window, then the second component of a trade signal is in place. You now have Time and Price working together. For most traders, that will be enough, but the Reversal Date Indicator takes it one step further.
PATTERN
After extensive research into price patterns, I have identified specific price patterns, which occur during reversal timing. These patterns can be used to confirm the market reversals or market continuations. When, and only when, these three components are all working together, will there be a trade signal generated. For more information on our Reversal Date Indicator, or should you have a specific market question, please call us at 1-800-521-0705
P.S. If you would like us to cover a market that we’re not currently covering, or should you wish to be taken off this e-mail newsletter, e-mail me at [email protected] or give us a call at 1-800-521-0705
Traders Market Views is a product of Traders Network and all statements herein reflect Traders Network’s market research. Traders Network and/or its principals, brokers and employees may or may not have established positions in part or all of the markets herein mentioned. It is possible that some of those positions, if any, are in direct conflict with the market commentary herewith.
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES
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