TMV for April 1st, 2009

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June Dow –Despite the Dow’s 19% rally off its March 9 th lows, viewed by the monthly chart, the move doesn’t seem very impressive. Traders will be watching developments this week, out of the G20 meetings. I’ve written several times about the troubles in Europe (much worse than here) and I doubt the Obama administration will achieve its goal of a more aggressive European stimulus package, out of the G20 meeting.

Monday I wrote, “A dip to the 20-day average could trigger some buyers. This could be a turn-around Tuesday!” But we didn’t drop to the 20-day, and there was no buy signal. Instead, Tuesday was an inside day, which suggests additional downside pressure is likely.

May Silver -The market drifted back to its 20-day average and formed a bull flag in the process. A break above 13.40 should kick in the buyers. If so, our upside target will be 14.30. Also, keep an ear to Thursday's G20 meetings. There could be some fireworks from that.

June Gold - Today marked First Notice Day for April gold, but I saw little delivery selling, which is bullish. The market has been drifting lower, just below the 20-day average, which I’d say is bullish as well. A break Wednesday or Thursday above 940.00 should kick in the buy programs. If so, our upside target will be 985.00.

June Euro Currency- One trader today said, “The dollar is like the nicest house in a real bad neighborhood.” The global economy continues to weaken. The sharp sell-off of the euro currency, which began Friday, is the latest development of the weakening economy and banking woes in Europe. On a brighter note, the euro's correction has pushed the market near its 20-day moving average, which could set up a buying opportunity later this week.

June British Pound - UK data on Friday showed the economy shrank by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of 2008, pressuring the British pound, and pushing it back toward the 20-day average. Technically, we could see a buy pattern set up this week.

June Canadian Dollar- Oh crap! Our upside target has been pegged at 82.10. Last week, the market topped at 8209, missing our target by one tick! Since then, the market has corrected—dropping to 79.18, as of this writing. I hate that! Currently, the CD is back to its 20-day moving average and should find support. We’ll continue holding this recommendation.

May Coffee- Ding! Ding! Ding! Last Thursday’s rally pushed the market to 119.00, just beyond our upside target of 118.75. Then, the market fell—dropping 580 points Monday. A drop to the 20-day average could set up another buying opportunity…say, Thursday.

May Wheat- Last night I wrote, “Tuesday morning's USDA Grain Stocks report could start the rally off again.” And it did! According to the USDA, wheat ending stock jumped 46% over last year, but the trade had expected the number to be even higher, so traders deemed the report bullish and the market rallied. Our upside target 5.68.

May Corn- The USDA Crop Stocks report showed corn had increased 1% over last year. The average trade guesses had pegged the increase at much higher, so today’s report was seen as bullish. Corn rallied over 20 cents! Also, as we near the 15 th of April, and if the weather patterns remain as they are, the talk will turn to wet fields and planting delays. That usually means a rally. Our upside target is 4.12.

May Crude - Japan’s crude demand has fallen 14%, China’s is off 6%, and the U.S is down too. In fact, U.S Crude inventories hit a 16-year high last week. However, the U. S. gasoline usage is nearly back to last year’s levels. But, with the Obama administration's stance on fossil fuels, and the pressure on Detroit to crank out more fuel efficient and green technology cars, the future is not bright for gasoline. A break below 47.70 should kick in the sellers. If so, our downside target would be 40.20.

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REVERSAL DATES FOR THE WEEK of March 30th, 2009

Monday- Yen-Sugar
Tuesday- Wheat, S&P, Dow
Wednesday- Corn, Copper, Bond, Dollar Index
Thursday-
Friday-

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MARKETS TO WATCH:

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1-MAY CORN – Long from $3.98 – TC - $4.04 3/4 – Monday was the sixth day of a correction against the prevailing trend. The market had reached the 20-day MA, as well as the lower median line. This support became a springboard after the Grains Stocks and prospective Plantings report was released early this morning. Corn surged higher and closed sharply higher. - Hold the long position, with a protective stop at $3.75.

2-JUNE TREASURY BONDS – Long from 129-25 – TC – 129-22- Hold the long position, with the protective stop at 126-21.

3-JUNE EUROCURRENCY – A bullish reaction swing has formed midway between the lower reaction line and the centerline. A market will typically move towards the centerline, so the probability is high that the Euro will trend higher. – Buy the Euro at 13740 stop, with a protective stop at 13425.

4-MAY SOYBEANS – Long from $9.40 – TC - $9.52 – The bullish reaction swing pattern has formed at the down sloping line. Today’ price action confirmed the pattern and triggered the buy signal. – Hold the long position, with the protective stop at $8.97.

5-MAY SOYBEAN MEAL – Long from $289.50 – TC - $295.30 - The recent pullback reached the 20-day MA and the lower median line before reversing and closing sharply higher. – Hold the long position, with a protective stop at $280.50.

6-MAY SOYBEAN OIL – Bean oil is showing the final stages of a major bullish TR pattern. A bullish report on Tuesday could confirm the pattern (a trade above 3385) and trigger a strong buying opportunity. – Buy Bean oil at 3389 stop, with a protective stop at 3170.

7-JUNE JAPANESE YEN – The Yen has completed a continuation pattern with a bearish reaction swing at the end of the pattern. This may mark the center on the longer-term trend. – Sell the Japanese yen at 10070 stop, with a protective stop at 10425.

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Due to the volatility of the markets all trade suggestions are subject to change, at anytime during market hours, without notice. *

(TERMS YOU NEED TO KNOW) (RD = Reversal date) -- (RL= Reaction line) -- (L = long) -- (S = Short) -- (TC = Today’s closing price) -- (RLT = Reaction line target) – (TR = Trend Reversal) –(TR = Trend Reversal) – (TC = Trend Continuation)

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How to use the Reversal Dates
Every good trading signal needs three key elements to be considered a successful signal. Time, Price and Pattern. When these three come together, great things can happen. If you can improve your timing or price entry, it can enhance any trading method. That is what the Reversal Dates can do for you. They will identify when the market should react, and at what price level the market needs to be for this to happen. They will even tell you what the market has to do to confirm the trade. The first thing I do is, identify Time. TIME The Reversal Date Indicator consists of three parts. The first is Time. This is identified by the projected Reversal date and will indicate which markets are ready to react and when the reaction should occur. The most common misconception about the Reversal dates is the idea that the market must reverse on every signal date, which is not true. Instead, The Reversal Date itself helps to identify the market’s reaction. A high percentage of the time, the market will reverse the current trend, but not always. A smaller percentage of the time, the market will form a “continuation pattern,” indicating the market will likely continue in the same direction as the prevailing trend. Often this will occur during a consolidation or after a very small correction.

PRICE
Once the Reversal date has been identified, the next thing to do is monitor the price. If the market is making a new high/low, or if it is trading inside a buy/sell window, then the second component of a trade signal is in place. You now have Time and Price working together. For most traders, that will be enough, but the Reversal Date Indicator takes it one step further.

PATTERN
After extensive research into price patterns, I have identified specific price patterns, which occur during reversal timing. These patterns can be used to confirm the market reversals or market continuations. When, and only when, these three components are all working together, will there be a trade signal generated. For more information on our Reversal Date Indicator, or should you have a specific market question, please call us at 1-800-521-0705

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Traders Market Views is a product of Traders Network and all statements herein reflect Traders Network’s market research. Traders Network and/or its principals, brokers and employees may or may not have established positions in part or all of the markets herein mentioned. It is possible that some of those positions, if any, are in direct conflict with the market commentary herewith.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES

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