TMV for April 21st, 2009

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June Dow- In the last issue I wrote, “I’m waiting for this market to climb to the 2 x 1 (sell) Gann line at 8310. I wonder now if I’m reaching too high, before the shifting sands again favor the sellers.” The market peaked at 8137 before falling nearly 300 points on Monday. The break began on news that the confidence of economic activity fell 0.3% in March, and has not risen in nine months. An inside pattern Tuesday would set up a sell signal for Wednesday.

June Bonds- I’ve been writing, “Once the market crosses to the 2 X 1 (buy) Gann line, the market is likely to rally.” The June bonds nearly hit that 2 x 1 Gann line Friday, before rallying 1-08 on Monday!

May Silver- The 2 X 1 Gann (buy) line is at 11.35. A drop to that level could offer a buying opportunity.

June Gold - Gold rallied on Monday, but I’m not seeing it as a buying opportunity. Pattern-wise, gold remains bearish. A dip to the 2 X 1 Gann line at $830 would offer a buying opportunity.

June Euro Currency- Renewed fears in the banking sector rallied the dollar vs. the euro today, as the euro fell to 129.18. The 2 X 1 Gann line is down at 127.30. A test of that area Tuesday at 127.40 should offer support. Our upside target is 138.50.

June British Pound - Ding! Ding! Ding! Thursday night, I wrote, “Chart-wise, we’ve formed three little highs since mid-March, each breaking the previous high by a little less. The market looks to be losing steam. Cover long positions, market on opening.” After opening at 149.24, the market has been falling since—dropping to 145.33 on Monday.

June Canadian Dollar- Since ringing the bell on Thursday at 83.50, the market has been correcting—falling on Monday by 160 points to 80.76.

July Coffee - Our downside target is pegged at 109.50.

May Wheat- De-inflationary factors looked to be in full swing Monday and, with the dollar rallying, grains fell. The wheat chart has a triple bottom feel to it, which is bad. It usually indicates lower prices.

May Corn- Ding! Ding! Ding! Thursday I wrote, “ Despite wet weather, corn hasn’t rallied this week. The chart looks heavy. Based on the Gann line, we’ll likely see a sideways to lower trade over the next two weeks, possibly dropping to 3.67. Our upside target has been pegged at 4.12, but I believe it’s time to ring the bell. Cover long positions off the opening.” After opening at 3.85 on Friday, corn has been under pressure—falling to 3.60 on Monday.

May Crude - It’s time to roll to the July contract; the fundamentals are the same…bearish. Yet for much of the last two weeks, crude has rallied, until today. July crude dropped $3.88 on Monday, trading at 50.68, as of this writing. I believe crude will drop to the 2 x 1 Gann line at 44.00.

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REVERSAL DATES FOR THE WEEK of April 20th, 2009

Monday- Crude Oil, Gold, Bonds, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Cocoa, Coffee
Tuesday- Soy meal
Wednesday- Hogs, Wheat
Thursday- Soybean Oil, Unleaded Gas, Euro Currency, J-Yen
Friday-

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MARKETS TO WATCH:

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1-MAY SOYBEANS – Long from $9.40 –Hit the Target! All last week, I had the target price listed at $10.70… Friday’s high was $10.73!

2-MAY SOYBEAN MEAL – Long from $289.50 – TC - $319.20 –Heavy selling pressured the market throughout Monday, but the low was short of the protective stop. The sell off came one day before the projected reversal date of April 21. - Hold the long position and move the stop to $317.50

3-MAY SOYBEAN OIL – Long from 3390 –The long position should have been closed at 3640.

4-JUNE GOLD – Short from $882.00 – TC - $884.40 – Friday’s low was $865. Although it fell short of the projected target of $850.00, it did trade below the previous pivot low before staging a rebound on Monday.

5-JUNE BRITISH POUND – Long from 1.4965 – TC – 1.4541 – Hold the long position, with a protective stop at 1.4445.

6-MAY CORN – Short from $3.82 – TC - $3.69 1/2 – Hold the short position and move the protective stop to $3.85, with a target of $3.55

7-JULY COFFEE – Short from 115.20 – TC – 113.60 - The failure to reach the centerline is an indication of a weakening market, coupled with a bearish TR pattern. This is a prime setup for a market decline. – Hold the short position and move the protective stop to 116.75.

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Due to the volatility of the markets all trade suggestions are subject to change, at anytime during market hours, without notice. *

(TERMS YOU NEED TO KNOW) (RD = Reversal date) -- (RL= Reaction line) -- (L = long) -- (S = Short) -- (TC = Today’s closing price) -- (RLT = Reaction line target) – (TR = Trend Reversal) –(TR = Trend Reversal) – (TC = Trend Continuation)

For daily updates on current Reversal date recommended trades, go to www.tradersnetwork.com

How to use the Reversal Dates
Every good trading signal needs three key elements to be considered a successful signal. Time, Price and Pattern. When these three come together, great things can happen. If you can improve your timing or price entry, it can enhance any trading method. That is what the Reversal Dates can do for you. They will identify when the market should react, and at what price level the market needs to be for this to happen. They will even tell you what the market has to do to confirm the trade. The first thing I do is, identify Time. TIME The Reversal Date Indicator consists of three parts. The first is Time. This is identified by the projected Reversal date and will indicate which markets are ready to react and when the reaction should occur. The most common misconception about the Reversal dates is the idea that the market must reverse on every signal date, which is not true. Instead, The Reversal Date itself helps to identify the market’s reaction. A high percentage of the time, the market will reverse the current trend, but not always. A smaller percentage of the time, the market will form a “continuation pattern,” indicating the market will likely continue in the same direction as the prevailing trend. Often this will occur during a consolidation or after a very small correction.

PRICE
Once the Reversal date has been identified, the next thing to do is monitor the price. If the market is making a new high/low, or if it is trading inside a buy/sell window, then the second component of a trade signal is in place. You now have Time and Price working together. For most traders, that will be enough, but the Reversal Date Indicator takes it one step further.

PATTERN
After extensive research into price patterns, I have identified specific price patterns, which occur during reversal timing. These patterns can be used to confirm the market reversals or market continuations. When, and only when, these three components are all working together, will there be a trade signal generated. For more information on our Reversal Date Indicator, or should you have a specific market question, please call us at 1-800-521-0705

P.S. If you would like us to cover a market that we’re not currently covering, or should you wish to be taken off this e-mail newsletter, e-mail me at [email protected] or give us a call at 1-800-521-0705

Traders Market Views is a product of Traders Network and all statements herein reflect Traders Network’s market research. Traders Network and/or its principals, brokers and employees may or may not have established positions in part or all of the markets herein mentioned. It is possible that some of those positions, if any, are in direct conflict with the market commentary herewith.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES

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